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[刀枪杂谈] 美元的历史价值

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楼主
发表于 2014-3-25 19:47 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
枪械作为durable goods,可以留给下一代。那么枪到底有没有升值呢?比如一支1911在四十年代零售大约40-50美刀,相当于现在多少钱能?请看下面的信息:

The Model T Ford cost $850 in 1908; however by 1925 the price had fallen to $290. How do we compare these values? If you wanted to compare the two years you would see that by using the CPI, the GDP deflator or the consumer bundle, $850 in 1908 is equivalent to between $1,485 and $1,670 in 1925. Using the wage indicator we see that the labor cost (of the 1908 car in 1925 wages) was $2,094 and by using the GDP per capita indicator it was $1,957. Thus in 1925 the $290 was less than 20% of its cost in 1908 using the price indexes and only 11 to 14% using the wage indicators and 15% using the GDP per capita.
If we wanted to consider the costs of the Model T using today's prices we would find that the $850 cost in 1908 is $21,900 in today's prices using the CPI, $15,600 using the GDP deflator, about $44,700 using the consumer bundle, $92,2000 using the unskilled wage, $141,600 using the manufacturing compensation, and $128,100 when comparing using the GDP per capita. At this point the ford was a luxury for most everyone.
The $290 in 1925, on the other hand, would be only $3,800 in today's prices using the CPI, $3,000 using the GDP deflator, $7,500 using the consumer bundle, $12,800 using the unskilled wage, $15,600 using the manufacturing compensation, and $19,000 when comparing using the GDP per capita. By then, the ford was an automobile affordable by all.

The "real" price of gasoline: Gasoline cost 27 cents a gallon in 1949 compared to around $3.60 today.* How has the relative cost of buying gas changed over the last 63 years? Presented here are two tables computing the annual "real" cost using our seven indicators, one in 2012 dollars, and the other in 1949 dollars. While the two tables show the same trends, they do give a different perspective.
Using the 2012 table and the CPI and the GDP deflator, we see that gasoline was quite expensive in 1980 and 1981 and the cheapest in 1998 and 1999. Today, the real price using these two measures is higher than the period at the beginning of the 1980s.
By looking at the share of the Consumer Bundle and GDP per capita, the story is a bit different. In 1981, a gallon of gas took as much out of what the average consumer spent as $3.90 does in 2011. And as a share of GDP per capita, gas was even more expensive in those earlier days with it at over $5.02 in 1980 and more expensive in the earlier years. Both wage indexes show the prices then and now are similar.
The other table tells the story in a different way. Let us look at relative cost to a worker to fill up using 1949 dollars. That year the 27 cents it cost for a gallon of gas, took a certain share of the worker's wage. The interesting question is, has the cost as a share or percent of the worker's wage increased or decreased over time? The table shows that for the two wage rates and price of gasoline in other years, this cost has fallen. Since wages have increased faster than the price of gasoline, by 2012 an unskilled worker spends less than two-thirds as much, as a percent of wage, for a gallon of gasoline than the 1949 worker. For a production worker it is only half. The table shows that the $3.61 a worker paid in 2012 would be comparable to only 19 to 23 cents (in 1949 prices "share" of the wage.
When we use the GDP per capita, the cost has fallen faster. Looking at the table shows that a gallon of gasoline costs around 13 cents a gallon (in 1949 prices) if measured as a "share" of the GDP per capita. This is because in 1949, 27 cents was .015% of per capita GDP, while in 2012, $3.61 was .007%。
Finally, comparing its cost as a share of GDP, we see that in 1949 prices, it is about 6 cents. This means that a gallon gasoline was six times larger as a share of output in 1949 than it is today.


http://www.measuringworth.com/uscompare/#

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-3-25 19:56 | 只看该作者
俺仔细想了一想,看三四十年代的老电影或者小说(比如Raymond Chandler的侦探小说),大家最常用的美刀钞票是1美元,现在是20美元。和上面一大堆中的consumer bundle与CPI的平均还真差不多。嘿嘿,人民币不是正好也是100块的票子最常用吗?
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板凳
发表于 2014-3-25 20:02 | 只看该作者
Commissar 发表于 2014-3-25 19:56
俺仔细想了一想,看三四十年代的老电影或者小说(比如Raymond Chandler的侦探小说),大家最常用的美刀钞票 ...

抵制通货膨胀!呵呵。
杯盘择友尽
题咏与士谈
---青灵子
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地板
发表于 2014-3-25 20:26 来自手机 | 只看该作者
我还记得 89 cents per gallon when I was in college
来自: iPhone客户端
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发表于 2014-3-25 20:42 | 只看该作者
Wooster 发表于 2014-3-25 20:26
我还记得 89 cents per gallon when I was in college

89.。。,我记得3年前3块现在4块。。。
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发表于 2014-3-25 21:20 | 只看该作者
Wooster 发表于 2014-3-25 20:26
我还记得 89 cents per gallon when I was in college

记得最后一次加89分钱的油是99年
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发表于 2014-3-25 21:27 | 只看该作者
jerseyv 发表于 2014-3-25 21:20
记得最后一次加89分钱的油是99年

1.1 and gone
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发表于 2014-3-26 05:20 | 只看该作者
Commissar 发表于 2014-3-25 22:56
俺仔细想了一想,看三四十年代的老电影或者小说(比如Raymond Chandler的侦探小说),大家最常用的美刀钞票 ...

WOW。还有人记得Raymond Chandler。他的《长眠不醒》(The Big Sleep)是我最喜爱的书之一。
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9#
发表于 2014-3-26 06:32 | 只看该作者
2000年底来美国在NJ加油0.99,这种年代long gone啦
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10#
发表于 2014-3-26 06:45 | 只看该作者
我加过最便宜的油也是89美分,大约世纪之交的时候。那时真便宜啊,比有的桶装水还便宜。
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11#
发表于 2014-3-26 07:17 | 只看该作者
N 年前在 South Jersey 加过八毛三 premium 的飘过。
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发表于 2014-3-26 08:23 | 只看该作者
Wooster 发表于 2014-3-25 20:26
我还记得 89 cents per gallon when I was in college

靠,俺老婆还是女朋友的时候,才$0.95 per gallon。
这个江湖,谁的剑快谁就有理。
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-3-26 13:45 | 只看该作者
jerseyv 发表于 2014-3-25 21:20
记得最后一次加89分钱的油是99年

哈哈哈哈哈,俺也记得,那时才来,还没车。
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-3-26 13:48 | 只看该作者
sinbad 发表于 2014-3-26 05:20
WOW。还有人记得Raymond Chandler。他的《长眠不醒》(The Big Sleep)是我最喜爱的书之一。 ...

The Big Sleep,Farewell My Lovely,Lady in the Lake, The Long Goodbye俺都看过,这家伙言语风趣,格调阴暗,好看的很。Raymond Chandler很懂枪的,里面描写的各式手枪不少,都很准确。
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15#
发表于 2014-3-26 14:01 | 只看该作者
本帖最后由 Qingshi 于 2014-3-26 17:08 编辑

所以说考虑赚钱不赚钱的时候要把通货膨胀、货币贬值、机会成本、流动性什么的都算进去。不能说十年前买花1000,现在还可以卖900就基本不亏了。
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发表于 2014-3-26 14:19 来自手机 | 只看该作者
Qingshi 发表于 2014-3-26 14:01
所以说考虑赚钱不赚钱的时候要把通货膨胀、货币贬值、机会成本、流动性什么的都算进去。不能说十年前买花10 ...

转换成能买多少大米是不是比较合适 吼吼
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发表于 2014-3-26 15:09 来自手机 | 只看该作者
walther 发表于 2014-3-26 17:19
转换成能买多少大米是不是比较合适 吼吼

哈哈,入乡随俗,要说麦当劳汉堡。这其实只能反映通胀。最好的办法是将以后的现金流折现,算个present value,现在的一百刀比十年后的一百刀可值钱多了。
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